Stuck in the Snownut Hole

We’ve not experienced two back-to-back weekend winter storms in a while, although neither lived up to the meterologist’s hype. That’s because you can’t accurately predict non-linear systems like weather and climate with a linear model. To function well, liner models require you have data input from all of the variables. In the case of weather and climate, this simply isn’t possible. Not only can we not measure all the variables, I would argue we don’t even know what they all are. Simple weather systems that require few datapoints, are much easier to predict, while more complicated systems are virtually impossible to accurately predict.

Our January 23-25 storm was very complex. Some models predicted 25″ of snow, and others called for some type of ice. All models finally settled on .75″ of ice, which would have been problematic. Fortunately, we only wound up with .25″ of ice, which was a welcome relief, since loosing power to heated greenhouses is never a good idea.

Storm 2, which arrived on January 30-Feb 1, was also complex, involving two competing systems, one to our east and one to our west. The day prior, the National Weather Service office in Raleigh called for us to get 9″ of snow. As the precipitation began falling, a doughnut hole appeared from Raleigh and points just south, preventing any precipitation until 24hrs into the storm. Consequently, by the time the two competing storms systems finally merged, we were left with a few hours of precipitation, that left us with only 2″ of fluffy snow. Within 90 minutes east, and 90 minutes west, storm totals were 16″ of snow.

We had been watching the low temperature predictions closely, since we need temperatures in the single digits F, to get decent winter hardiness tests. For two weeks, meterologists teased us with predictions of low temperatures of 8-9F. Well, the system is finished, and all we could muster was a measly 16F, although our sister instituition, the JC Raulston Arboretum, 30 minutes northwest, tell me that they recorded 8F.

Becaujse of the consistently cold nights in, and near the teens F for over two weeks, we saw the first waterfall freeezing we’ve had in years. It’s always cool to walk by a frozen ice sheet.

Below is the Founder’s garden grotto waterfall after the storm.

Our Mt. Michelle waterfall was even more spectacular, if that’s possible.

Because the snow was so dry, litle of it actually stuck to the plants.

Our clump of Rosmarinus officialis ‘Arp’ was dense enough that it held on to a bit more snow than most other plants.

Perhaps this is the last winter storm for 2026…we’ll see. In the meantime, we are less than four weeks away from our Winter Open Nursery and Garden. We hope you’ll join us to walk the garden, attend our free Gardening Unplugged programs, bring your plants questions, and hopefully, find a few plants you can’t live without.